Analysis

: Published: 04 November 2025

Article

Commitment of Traders (COT) – Overview

A practical guide to reading positioning in futures markets.

1. What is the COT Report?

The Commitment of Traders (COT) is a weekly publication by the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission). It shows how major trader groups are positioned in futures (and options on futures). Each report reflects positions as of the close on Tuesday and is published every Friday.

Release time: Fridays at 3:30 PM ET (usually 21:30 CET/CEST). U.S. holidays can shift the release schedule.

2. Trader Groups

Commercials (Hedgers) – Producers, merchants, processors, and end users of the underlying commodity. They hedge real-world exposure and are typically net short in many markets. When they move toward a net long, it can indicate potential upside.
Non-Commercials (Large Speculators) – Hedge funds, CTAs, and financial institutions trading for profit. They often amplify trends. Extreme long or short readings can precede reversals.
Non-Reportables – Small traders not required to report. Often viewed as a contrarian signal.

3. Report Structure

The COT report shows long, short, and spreading positions for each group. There are multiple report formats, including the classic “Legacy”, the more detailed “Disaggregated”, and the “Traders in Financial Futures (TFF)” for index and FX markets.

4. Key Metrics

Net Positions = Long − Short
Open Interest = Total outstanding contracts
COT Index (0–100): Position relative to its own historical range

5. How to Use COT Data

The COT report is not an intraday trading tool – it’s best used to define bias or market regime. When commercials reach extreme long positions while speculators are heavily short, it can suggest a potential bottoming process.

Many traders combine COT signals with seasonality and fundamental data (e.g., WASDE reports, export data, or weather models) to confirm directional bias.

6. Typical Setups

Commercial Extreme + Seasonality – Buy setup when commercials are net long and the market enters a bullish seasonal phase.
Speculator Overstretch – Fade extreme speculative positioning when price momentum stalls.
Trend Confirmation – Use COT data as a background filter for trend-following systems.

7. Limitations

The data lags by three days (Tuesday → Friday).
Use consistent data (Futures-Only or Futures + Options).
Do not rely on single-week readings – context and multi-week trends matter.

8. Conclusion

The COT report provides an invaluable macro view of how key participants position themselves across commodities, indices, and currencies. Used correctly, it helps traders identify accumulation and distribution phases, filter seasonal trades, and align strategies with professional money flows.

: Published: 19 October 2025

Trading Without COT: How to Stay Aligned During the U.S. Government Shutdown

When the U.S. government shuts down, CFTC and USDA reports pause — including the weekly COT report and the WASDE publication. Here’s how I adapt my commodity & futures trading when transparency temporarily disappears.

The Immediate Impact

CFTC / COT: No weekly positioning report.
USDA / WASDE: No supply-demand update, Crop Progress paused.
Effect: Less transparency → potentially more uncertainty & volatility.

Adapting the Framework Without Fresh COT

Use the last available COT as baseline. Positioning rarely flips in a week; assume continuity unless price structure breaks.
Open Interest & Volume as a real-time proxy for participation. Rising OI + rising price = likely institutional demand.
Seasonality windows remain valid (independent of the shutdown). Favor historical edges when reports are missing.
VWAP & volume clusters for execution timing; they reveal where smart money is active, even without COT.
Fundamental substitutes (exchange stocks, private research) can bridge short gaps in grains/softs/metals.

Mindset: Process Over Data

Consistency beats perfect information. No new COT? Use the last one. No WASDE? Trade technicals and seasonality. Focus on price reaction, not speculation. Markets don’t pause — they test who can trade without the crutch of data.

Example: Corn Futures (ZC)

Last COT context: commercials increased longs, managed money reduced shorts.
Seasonal bias: historically positive mid-Feb → late Apr.
Structure: holding above key VWAP cluster (e.g., 409–420 c) — remains constructive while this area holds.

Note: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always check current conditions with your broker/platform.